ACV (Annual Contract Value) – Annualized revenue from a customer contract.

ADP Print – Private payroll employment data from ADP.

Agentic AI – AI systems that autonomously act, decide, and transact.

ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) – Contracted subscription revenue expected annually.

Automatic Stabilizers – Government spending/tax mechanisms that rise in downturns.

Basis Points (bps) – One hundredth of a percentage point.

Blue-Collar vs White-Collar – Manual labor jobs vs professional/office jobs.

BLS – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Bond Market Pricing – How yields reflect expectations about growth/inflation.

CapEx – Capital expenditures on long-term assets.

CDS (Credit Default Swap) – A contract that acts like insurance against a borrower defaulting on its debt.

Circuit Breaker – Trading halt triggered by sharp market declines.

Closed-End Fund – Investment vehicle with locked-up capital.

CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligation) – Structured product backed by leveraged loans.

Compute – AI processing power (GPUs/data centers).

Convex to a Trend – Performance accelerates as the trend strengthens.

Covenant – Contractual financial performance requirement in debt.

Creative Destruction – Innovation replacing old industries/jobs.

Credit Desk – Institutional team managing debt investments.

Credit Spread – Extra yield over Treasuries for credit risk.

Current Account Surplus – Country exports more than it imports (net).

Daisy Chain of Bets – Interconnected financial exposures amplifying risk.

Default Cycle – Period of rising corporate debt defaults.

Deflationary Spiral – Falling prices/incomes reinforcing economic contraction.

Delinquency – Missed or late debt payment.

Direct Lending – Private loans made directly to companies.

Distilled Model – Smaller AI model derived from a larger one.

Drawdown – Peak-to-trough market decline.

EBITDA – Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization.

Equity Multiple – Return on invested capital (e.g., 2x).

FICO Score – Credit score measuring borrower risk.

Fintwit – Financial discussion community on X/Twitter.

FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee (Fed policy body).

Forward Deployed Engineers – On-site technical consultants from AI firms.

GFC – Global Financial Crisis (2008).

Ghost GDP – Measured output not translating into real household income. (ie Circular Deals, Infrastructure that does not translate into jobs (think Data Centers))

Haircut (Repo) – Collateral discount applied in secured lending.

HELOC – Home equity line of credit.

High-Yield – Below-investment-grade corporate debt. (Risky)

Hyperscaler – Massive cloud/AI infrastructure operator. (Can ramp up or down quickly)

Inference – Running an AI model to generate outputs.

Interchange Fee – Fee merchants pay card networks (2–3%). (credit card fees)

Intermediation – Acting as middleman between buyer and seller.

JOLTS – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

LBO (Leveraged Buyout) – Acquisition financed largely with debt.

Leverage – Use of borrowed money to amplify returns.

Locked-Up Capital – Investor funds that cannot be withdrawn quickly. (ie pension funds that agree to keep money in place for 10 years)

Marks – Valuations assigned to private assets.

Marginal Propensity to Consume – Share of income spent rather than saved.

Margin Compression – Declining profit margins.

MBS (Mortgage-Backed Security) – A bond backed by a pool of home mortgages that passes borrower payments to investors.

Mortgage Underwriting – Evaluating borrower creditworthiness.

Money Good – Debt expected to repay in full.

Mono-line Issuer – Financial firm focused on a single product line.

Moat – Durable competitive advantage.

Negative Feedback Loop – Self-reinforcing downward economic cycle.

Net New ACV – Growth in new annual contract value. (ie contracts for Saas services like Salesforce or Zendesk)

NBER – Organization that officially dates U.S. recessions. Often late in calling Rs.

OpEx – Operating expenses (ongoing business costs). (ie cost of electricity to run a Data Center)

Permanent Capital – Long-duration investor funds not easily withdrawn. (see Locked-Up Capital)

Policy Toolkit – Government tools (prime interest rates, QE, fiscal stimulus).

Private Credit – Non-bank lending to companies.

Procurement – Corporate purchasing department.

QE/QT – Quantitative Easing (printing money/Fed creates money) / Quantitative Tightening (removing money from money supply)

RBC Factors – Risk-based capital charges for insurers.

Reflexivity – Feedback between market perception and fundamentals.

Repo Line – Short-term secured funding arrangement. (used in repo market to fund companies using very short term debt, sometimes overnight)

Restructuring – Renegotiating debt after distress.

Secular Headwind – Long-term structural negative force.

Sell-Side – Investment banks and brokerage research firms.

Sigmoid Curve – S-shaped growth pattern (slow-fast-slow).

SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) – Legal entity isolating assets/liabilities.

Spread Over – Profit from difference between borrowing and lending rates.

SVO – The specific NAIC office assigning insurance asset risk categories. (NAIC regulates insurers)

Systemic Risk – Risk threatening entire financial system.

Tokens (AI) – Units of text processed by AI models.

Utilization Rate – Percentage of capacity in active use.

Velocity of Money – Rate at which money circulates in economy. (ie spending money creates growth (fast velocity) and saving money slows growth (slow velocity).

White-Collar Services Economy – Economy dominated by professional services.